Acceleration of growth through new 'Urban Mobility' trends

The fourth capital conference ‘electric mobility’ took place on March 16, 2016 and showed the future prospects for the new mobility sector in Berlin. The development of electric mobility and new mobility offers, such as carsharing, e-hailing and connected cars, could be an important job engine for Berlin. The consulting company McKinsey presented their latest results of the forecast “growth area urban mobility”. The aim of the study was to find out how the biggest city of Germany can benefit from the intelligent mobility solutions.

These 4 worldwide trends will decisively change the mobility behavior in cities:

1. These include app-based mobility offers, such as bikesharing, e-hailing and carsharing, which is being rolled out across the world. In the year 2015 carsharing recorded 6 million users worldwide. Berlin takes the leading position in carsharing with 2.900 shared cars ahead of London with 2.200 cars. By the year 2030 one in ten sold cars could be a shared car. However, London Is the pioneer in terms of e-hailing. The city has already 500.000 Uber-users and more than 15.000 drivers.
2. Another trend is the electrification of the driveline. In the best-case scenario every second new vehicle should have a (partly) electric motor in 2030. Big cities and metropolises will play a key role in dissemination the electric mobility.
3. Connectivity is the third trend which helps to change the way we move. Cars will be the new information center in the future and will help to enhance the safety, to optimize the routing and to improve the traffic flow. Today already 37% of those questioned would change the car brand if they get better connectivity-offers instead.
4. The last trend determined by McKinsey is automated driving which will take some more years of realization. In the best-case scenario 15% of all new vehicles could drive automated by 2030. 75% of all German car buyers are prepared to make the transition to autonomous driving cars. But only on the two following conditions: it must not cost more than a conventional one and the driver, if he so wishes, can take over control.

McKinsey makes a distinction between progressive development, disruptive scenario and conservative development. The crucial point if the four megatrends will develop fast and progressive or conservative will primarily determine the legislation:

• For the app-based mobility offers it matters a lot if there are entry restrictions for inner cities. In London for instance the traffic reduced by 30% after the inner city's ever-rising "congestion charge” was introduced. Concurrently, London is the pioneer in terms of e-hailing in Europe.
• The electrification of the driveline is probably also determined by the emission standards.
• Regulatory hurdles have to be mastered for a faster access to the market for autonomous driving.
• Only for the megatrend connectivity McKinsey considers market economy criteria as crucial. The acceptance of fee-based offers by the consumer are a very important criterion.

New Mobility generates new jobs

At the moment approx. 75.000 people are working in the sector urban mobility. More than half of all work in mobility companies and in the public transportation network (ÖPNV). The remaining jobs are executing firms for instance taxi drivers, petrol stations and garages. Up to the year 2030 the intelligent urban mobility can create up to 14.000 new employment opportunities in the capital city Berlin. This brings the potential of 1.000 new jobs each year up to 2030. To achieve this goal McKinsey recommends the city to focus on three success factors: 1. positioning as the leading market for urban multi-mobility, 2. the promotion of the local startup culture in this sector and 3. to raise talents in the most important growth areas in the new mobility value chain.

The global comparison of Berlin shows that the city has a huge potential. In numbers Berlin has 2.900 carsharing vehicles, 7.900 electric cars, 500 charging points, 61.000 MINT students, R&D expenditure of EUR 479 million in 2011 and EUR 6,3 million venture capital investment between 2013 and 2015. On an international comparison basis, the investment amount puts Berlin well ahead of London with EUR 5,6 million but far behind Silicon Valley with EUR 10,4 million. Also the number of electric vehicles is lower than in the global comparison. Promoting a targeted business establishment policy could open new possibilities for Berlin. The profitable factor costs and the availability of work force are two very important arguments for Berlin.

source: McKinsey: Wachstumsfeld urbane Mobilität. Wie Berlin wirtschaftlich profitieren kann. Berlin: März 2016.

picture: abbilder, “Festival of Lights”, Some rights reserved.